Tired of the Wall Street Casino? Tariffs, Tumbling Markets, and aSafer Path Forward

Introduction
If you’re feeling whiplash from the markets lately, you’re not alone. After record highs just weeks ago, Wall Street just posted its worst two-day drop since 2020. Trillions of dollars in value vanished as the U.S. administration rolled out sweeping new tariffs—and global markets followed suit in a synchronized plunge.

While Washington talks “Liberation Day,” investors are left wondering: Is this just turbulence, or the start of a full-blown downturn?

For many, the past few weeks are a wake-up call. In this month’s newsletter, we cut through the noise, examine the global selloff, and show why First Trust Deeds may be the steady alternative to the chaos of the Wall Street casino.

What’s Behind The Tariff Shock?
To understand the current market volatility, it’s important to look at what’s driving the policy decisions behind it.

The sweeping tariffs announced by President Trump were not introduced in isolation. They are the centerpiece of a broader trade strategy the administration calls "economic nationalism"—a plan to reset America's trade relationships, bring manufacturing back to U.S. soil, and protect industries deemed vital to national security.

According to the White House, these tariffs are designed to reverse decades of trade imbalances and reduce the country’s reliance on foreign supply chains. The administration argues that previous trade deals left the U.S. vulnerable—both economically and strategically—and that now is the time to regain leverage by forcing key trading partners to renegotiate on American terms.

President Trump has described this effort as a "transition period" and has acknowledged that the approach will cause short-term pain. But in his view, the tariffs are a means to a long-term end.

Whether these goals can be achieved without triggering broader economic fallout is still uncertain. But as we’re already seeing, the markets are not waiting to find out—they're reacting now.

U.S. Stock Markets Plunge
Wall Street experienced its worst two-day performance since the early pandemic days on Thursday, April 2 and Friday, April 3:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Dropped 2,231.07 points, or 5.5%, to 38,314.86 on Friday, the biggest decline since June 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. This follows a 1,679-point decline on Thursday and marks the first time ever that it has shed more than 1,500 points on back-to-back days.

• S&P 500: Nosedived 5.97% to 5,074.08, the biggest decline since March 2020. The benchmark shed 4.84% on Thursday and is now off more than 17% off its recent high. It lost over $5.06 trillion in market value in two days.

• Nasdaq: home to many tech companies that sell to China and manufacture there as well, dropped 5.8%, to 15,587.79. This follows a nearly 6% drop on Thursday and takes the index down by 22% from its December record, a bear market in Wall Street terminology.

Refer to the series of charts “U.S. Stock Markets Tumble for the Second Day.”

High-profile individual stock casualties include:

• Apple: -15.9%, shedding over $310 billion in market value.
• Tesla: -15.3%, impacted by reports of EU targeting U.S. firms for retaliation.
• Nike: -14.4% Thursday, modest recovery Friday due to Vietnam trade hopes.
• Best Buy: -16.4%, struggling under import cost pressure.
• Ralph Lauren: -16.3% Thursday, hit by luxury retail exposure.

The VIX volatility index spiked 50% over two days, rising from 21.5 before the tariff announcement to 45.3 by market close on Friday—its highest level since the COVID-related spikes in March 2020.

CNN’s Fear & Greed Index also collapsed to its lowest point this year, plunging from “neutral” to deep “extreme fear” territory.

These losses come on top of the steep declines seen in March 2025, when recession fears began to take hold—a period we covered in detail in our March 2025 newsletter—further compounding investor anxiety.

Global Stock Markets Follow Suit
Global stock markets echoed Wall Street’s turmoil, reflecting investor fears that the escalating U.S.-led trade war could derail global economic growth and further disrupt already fragile supply chains. As countries prepared retaliatory tariffs and the dollar weakened, capital fled equity markets worldwide.

Stock markets around the world joined the two-day sell-off:

Americas
• Canada (TSX): -8.4%
• Mexico (IPC): -4.4%
• Brazil (Bovespa): -3.5%

Europe
• Europe (STOXX 600): -7.6%
• Italy (FTSE MIB): -9.9%
• Germany (DAX): 7.8%
• France (CAC): -7.4%
• UK (FTSE 100): -6.3%

Asia
• Japan (Nikkei): -5.4%
• Australia (ASX): -2.4%
• South Korea (KOSPI): -2.3%
• Hong Kong (Hang Seng): -1.5% 

Refer to the map “Global Stock Markets Plunge After Tariff Announcement” for a visual representation of the impact of the U.S. tariffs on select global stock markets.

Again, these losses come in addition to the sharp downturn experienced in March 2025.

Other Asset Classes React
Investor sentiment extended beyond equities, creating significant moves in other asset classes as capital rotated toward perceived safety:

Bond yields: The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell below 4.0% for the first time since October, signaling a strong flight to safety as investors sought low-risk assets amid rising volatility. Bond prices and yields trade in opposite directions. When demand bonds is high, yields go down. 

Gold: Prices surged to a record $3,160 per troy ounce on Thursday, before settling at $3,030 Friday. This 19% year-to-date climb reflects growing demand for safe havens as inflation fears and recession risks mount.

Oil: Fears of a global economic slowdown triggered a sell-off in energy markets. U.S. crude fell 6.6% Thursday and 7.4% Friday to $61.99, while Brent crude dropped to $70.14—both marking their lowest levels since 2021.

U.S. Dollar: Despite classical theory suggesting tariffs boost the dollar, it dropped to its weakest level since October 2024. Investors are betting that long-term growth will suffer more than any short-term benefit from import taxes. For example, the euro rose to $1.11, up from $1.07 before the U.S. tariff announcement — marking a 3.0% increase and reflecting how sharply sentiment has turned against the U.S. currency amid tariff uncertainty.

Recession Fears Continue
JPMorgan raised its U.S. recession probability to 60%, citing the tariffs as the largest tax increase in recent memory ($660 billion per year) and warning of a potential 2% surge in inflation.

Fitch Ratings said the U.S. effective tariff rate will jump from 2.5% to 22%, surpassing the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. This would mark the most protectionist trade stance since 1910, risking global recession.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned Friday that Trump’s tariffs could significantly raise inflation and slow growth. Powell said the increases were larger than expected and that the resulting economic impact could be severe. He noted that both the scale and duration of these effects remain highly uncertain.

What Does It Mean For Investors?
If the past month was a warning shot, these two days were the reckoning. The S&P 500 lost $5 trillion in market value in just 48 hours. Global equities followed suit, and commodities signaled deep unease. And all this comes on top of the declines already seen in March 2025.

Wall Street strategists warn that this may not be the bottom. Citi’s head of U.S. equity strategy Stuart Kaiser said he sees "ample space to the downside" for stocks. He noted that worst-case tariff scenarios haven’t yet been fully priced into earnings or valuations. In past recessions since 1948, the S&P 500 has typically fallen 22.1%—and we’re not there yet. Kaiser sees scenarios of the index falling to the mid-4000s as reasonable.

While the administration defends this as a “transition period,” investors are left navigating sharp losses, high volatility, and extreme uncertainty. If the administration's long-term goals are achieved, this pain may be justified. But how long that will take—and how deep the losses will be—is unknown.

That’s why it time to step off the Wall Street rollercoaster.

First Trust Deeds: A Stable Alternative
In times of turmoil, investors seek shelter—and First Trust Deeds continue to deliver:

• Stable, income-driven, tangible investments
• Less exposed to stock market swings and speculative assets
• Competitive 10.5%+ returns, significantly higher than Treasuries (4.0%) or corporate bonds

Backed by real estate, First Trust Deeds avoid overhyped sectors and speculative swings. With housing demand still strong in core regions, these assets offer a level of predictability that’s in short supply.

If you’re tired of the Wall Street casino, maybe it’s time for a quieter table—one with solid collateral, regular payouts, and no flashing lights.

Let’s Talk. With 20+ years of experience, Safeguard is here to help investors navigate turbulent markets. Reply to this email or call us today at 877-280-5771 to learn more about First Trust Deed opportunities designed for this moment.

The casino’s spinning—but you don’t have to play.